(Good) Thoughts on The August Competition At the Time Being

Hey all. I've been reading the baits and trying to think about the final awards. So, here's my view on some of the big baits of the month and my early predictions on some categories.

Baits:

The Man Who Invented Rock Hudson- This is probably my favorite bait of the month. It just has the quality and interest needed to make it a winner. If anything may hinder the bait's success, it might be one of two things. One is the cast. Though it has some good roles for Imperioli and MacMahon, it's a little overstuffed with characters who may have not needed to be in their in the first place. The other is its director choice. Singer is not a horrible choice, but I think Condon should have taken both the writer and director's credit instead. Still, my favorite bait of the month.

Quiet Room- Like Sweet Black and Blue, this film really has that feel to it that makes it a Lynch movie. It's the obvious frontrunner for director and it's cast is likely to get recognition. However, two things hinder this bait. One is the bait itself. I don't think people are too comfortable with the more quirky or bizzare films, so it may affect their opinion (like it did for Sweet Black and Blue). The other is the press section. It didn't do the bait justice since it neglected the fact it's suppose to support the film, not add to the plot. Don't get me wrong, it's well written but it's not a press section. Still, a big contender for many awards.

Foggy London Nights- Josh is almost a shoo-in to win best author this month. Rock Hudson is getting him great acclaim and this film is a great support film. It really feels like a British movie and is just interesting. Kudos for making Daniel Radcliff a frontrunner for best supporting actor. When someone can break an actor's typecasting or image like that, you know it means they got talent. So while maybe not a best picture canidate, don't be surprised to see this film later at the official awards.

Six Days in '67- Probably one of the baitiest baits this month, with a subject that's pure Oscar material. Plus, it has the strength of a competent director choice and probably the best cast of the month. The only thing hindering this bait is the somewhat malnurished synopsis. It's not bad, but it just seems to kill the momentum at the end of the reading. Plus, some characters need more description. Still, this bait's got a lot going for it and is likely to see Oscar and precursor gold.

Bee-Bee's Funhouse- An improvement for Brian over some of his recent baits. It has an Oscar friendly cast, a good story and quality writing to spare. However, it lacks the spark that made so many of Brian's previous baits like iLife and Balton Productions shine. This is definately Brian's comeback bait though, so I bet there will be good support for it throughout.

The Picture of Dorian Gray- I admit, this is much more of a Polanski film than Ashes was. It's simple, artisitic and easily one of Harry's best in quite a while. However, like '67, this bait seems to kind of lurch to a halt at the end of the synopsis, not giving us enough to continue even though we really want it to. It's going to be tricky for this film to get the right attention, but if Harry plays his cards right (and utilizes those great posters effectively), he may get some recognition come Oscar time.

The Courtroom- Bryce seems to know what he was doing when he wrote this bait. It's style is well suited for it's director, the cast is good and it's plot is very Oscar friendly. However, it's still a bit too safe to get major recognition and lacks some of the uniqueness of the other competitors. Still, it should definately benefit Bryce in the long run, especially as a great vehicle for star Will Smith.

So with those examined, here's a early prediction for Oscar winners.

Predictions:

Best Picture- This is going to be one of the most competitive months in all of the contest. There's no true frontrunner at this point, so any film has a chance. However, the only film so far to gain the most recognition is The Man Who Invented Rock Hudson. Winning Chris's Oscar for Best Picture and the Festival Grand Prize, this bait has the most acclaim to back it up. That doesn't mean it's safe, but it does mean it has a good shot.

Prediction: The Man Who Invented Rock Hudson
Other Possibilities: Quiet Room and Bee-Bee's Funhouse

Best Director- While many directors shone this month, the one who stood above the rest in my opinion is David Lynch in Quiet Room. His style fit the bait well and I could easily see him making this movie. So he's my frontrunner, but there are still other directors to consider.

Prediciton: David Lynch for Quiet Room
Other Possibilities: Antoine Fuqua for Six Days in '67 and Roman Polanski for The Picture of Dorian Gray

Best Actor- Easily the most competitive field this month behind the best picture race. In a month filled with male driven films, it will be tricky to find a sure winner. And such, I can't decide between the three considerations. All three competitors, Will Smith, Clive Owen and Michael Imperioli, are well chosen and star in some very good baits. I can't break a tie between them, so they will all be my prediction. While there are many others who are also worthy, these are my main competitors.

Possibilities (Can't decide): Will Smith for the Courtroom, Michael Imperioli for The Man Who Invented Rock Hudson and Clive Owen for Blackwater Park.

Best Actress- The female acting categories have never really been as competitive as the male. This is usually because a frontrunner is chosen very early on in the race. This month, expect to see Jennifer Connelly as the woman to beat.

Prediction: Jennifer Connelly for Quiet Room
Other Possibilities: Kerry Washington for Six Days in '67 and Diane Lane for Rabbit Hole

Best Supporting Actor- This is usually a very tough race and for the most part, it remains so this month. However, one young man has already risen above the competition to be a frontrunner. You may know him better as the kid from Harry Potter, but I kid you not that soon you'll be seeing Daniel Radcliff at the final awards for his role in Foggy London Nights. The reason being is that not only is he in one of the best baits this month and is backed by a frontrunner for best author, but his character is very engaging and well suited for him. Which is saying a lot given there were many good supporting roles this month. So he's my frontrunner for the time being.

Prediction: Daniel Radcliff for Foggy London Nights
Other Possibilities: Justin Therox for Quiet Room and Mandy Patinkin for Bee-Bee's Funhouse

Best Supporting Actress- Again, female field less competitive. Kathy Bates has gotten a lot of love for her role in Rabbit Hole and will likely get more. There might be some competition, but expect her to be the one leading the pack.

Prediciton: Kathy Bates for Rabbit Hole
Other Possibilities: Robin Wright Penn for Quiet Room and Uma Thurman for The Witching Hour

Best Original Screenplay- With so many original films, this is going to be a hard category. My vote is going to go to Quiet Room for it's originality, but there are still many other worthy canidates that could usurp it.

Prediction: Quiet Room
Other Possibilities: Bee-Bee's Funhouse and Foggy London Nights

Best Adapted Screenplay: This is probably one of the strongest months that this category has had in a long time. A lot more people sent in adapted stories (including me) and they thankfully had quite of bit of quality to them. Obviously I'm not going to put myself on this since that would be very amateurish of me, so my frontrunner is The Man Who Invented Rock Hudson just cause it feels like it has a good chance given its writer. Of course, there are others who could win it as well.

Prediction: The Man Who Invented Rock Hudson
Other Possibilities: The Picture of Dorian Gray and Rabbit Hole

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So that's what I got to say. I will follow this up eventually as the contest progresses. Feel free to leave your comment and predictions here. Oh, and if you have any comments for Fallout or Indigo Prophecy, they would be very appreciated.