Big 8 Predictions (Excluding mine)

Since we are getting to the point where everyone will begin their predictions, I figure I should give it a whack. Seeing how this is such a hectic month based on the GG's and SAG's, predicitions are going to be a hard thing to do. I'll do my best to acknowledge who I think should win and be on the list.

Best Adapted Screenplay
The Man Who Invented Rock Hudson***
Rabbit Hole
Grey Gardens
The Picture of Dorian Gray
Deep Secret

This is probably one of the most competitive months this category has seen in a while. Many acclaimed films were based on books and previous sources and even if they weren't the best baits, many adapted baits were able to score for their potential. Alex has the best chances for nominations, given he did two pretty good adaptations of stage stories. Harry, though snubbed for his film in precursors, is likely to score with the final awards for Dorian Gray (like many films do in the finals). Deep Secret, though not my favorite, definately has the support from many veterans so it will get a spot. I feel, however, that Rock Hudson will get some love in more than just best picture. I see it snagging the award, but Deep Secret and Dorian Gray have a chance too.

Best Original Screenplay
Six Days in ‘67
Quiet Room***
Foggy London Nights
Bee-Bee’s Funhouse
The Winter Sun

I was surpsied that this category was a little weaker this month (in my opinion). Not that their weren't a lot of good ones, but that there is no real frontrunner here. The five on my list though, each had something unique to bring to the table. For what it lacked in its synopsis, Six Days had easily one of the most baity stories and would definately be a good contender here. Foggy London Nights had a great story just because its characters were very nicely written. Bee-Bee's Funhouse, though a bit flawed in its plot a bit too, had one of the Oscar-friendliest stories of the group. And The Winter Sun is one the list for its uniqueness and characters. However, my vote goes to Quiet Room for its creativity and wonderfully designed characters. My favorite for this category.

Best Supporting Actress
Kathy Bates for Rabbit Hole***
Robin Wright Penn for Quiet Room
Jill Clayburgh for Grey Gardens
Amy Adams for Bee-Bee’s Funhouse
Uma Thurman for The Witching Hour

This month, though not strong, had a couple heavy hitters. Adams and Thurman, despite getting no big noms, did have interesting roles that could serve them in the long run. Clayburgh has slowly but steadily been getting recognition and I think she should get a nom. I think it boils down to Penn and Bates. While Penn is great and was part of one of the contest's best ensembles, Bates character is so well suited for her that I think she is a lock.

Best Supporting Actor
Daniel Radcliff for Foggy London Nights***
James Gandolfini for The Winter Sun
Mandy Patinkin for Bee-Bee's funhouse
Justin Theroux for Quiet Room
Greg Kinnear for Rabbit Hole

I'm all for recognizing actors you wouldn't expect to win. This was a strong month for this category and all the nominees I picked are worthy. From actors in strong ensembles (the last three nods) to actors with great characters (the top two), the talent was great. But I will award it to Radcliff cause I enjoyed his character so much and he's a part of the Josh cannon this month. With Rock Hudson a lock in other categories, Foggy London Nights should get some recognition. And where else could you see someone not only bait a Harry Potter actor, but bait him seriously? That alone gets my vote.

Best Actress
Julianne Moore for The Witching Hour
Kerry Washington for Six Days in 67
Diane Lane for Rabbit Hole
Jennifer Connelly for Quiet Room***
Sigourney Weaver for Equality

Again, female acting categories are usually weaker, but there were some hits. Each one had a great role for them and many are in some of the best baits of the month. However, Connelly gets my vote because not only is she in one of the months best baits, but she has a great character that would really utilize her talents. Bravo Sergio.

Best Actor
Michael Imperioli for The Man Who Invented Rock Hudson***
Will Smith for The Courtroom
Ralph Fiennes for The Picture of Dorian Gray
Jeff Bridges for Bee-Bee’s Funhouse
Chiwetel Ejiofer for Six Days in 67

This is one of the most competitive categories of the month. So many great leads and each on my list are all worthy. From Fiennes's Oscar friendly role in Dorian Gray to Bridges's interesting character in Funhouse to Ejiofer's nicely chosen role in '67 to Will Smith's "likely to be a winner" role in Courtroom, this was a tough pick. However, I am seeing Rock Hudson becoming this month's World's Longest Suicide in sweeping the best picture, actor and adapted screenplay. So I see Imperioli winning for his very baity and intriguing role.

Best Director
David Lynch for Quiet Room***
Antoine Fuqua for Six Days in ‘67
Roman Polanski for The Picture of Dorian Gray
Ang Lee for The Winter Sun
Anthony Minghella for Deep Secret

Another tough category. All the people on this list are very worthy just because they fit their material well. However, my vote goes to Lynch just cause I love Quiet Room so much and I think it should get it. However, I wouldn't mind seeing any of them win.

Best Picture
Quiet Room
The Man Who Invented Rock Hudson***
The Courtroom
Bee-Bee’s Funhouse
The Picture of Dorian Gray

The category that everyone wants is one of the most competitive yet. Through all the films this month, each author has brought some quality work to the table. Harry did one of his best baits yet through Dorian Gray. Brian still proved his veteran status with Funhouse. Sergio continues to improve into one of this contest's best authors with Quiet Room. And good old Bryce powers through his bait's flaws to make it a likeable story. However, there's one film that eclipses most of them. Josh, a veteran who has been both in and out of the top lists, has finally written his masterpiece through Rock Hudson. An Oscar friendly story, a mostly good cast and crew and great writing make this film a winner. Plus, since Josh had the best profile of the month (which will guarantee him an author win), he is likely to win best picture as well. This is his to lose.