Zgamer's Predictions

Bryce, feel free to put you predictions up too. I'm just going to do mine.

They're finally here. Expect comments and predictions to follow soon.

September 2007 Bait an Oscar Nominations

CREATIVITY AWARDS


Best Plot / Synopsis

Bandito Express
Cinémathèque
Gone Since November
Project Sin
The Red Menace
The Second Coming

A lot of good nominees up here. I think it boils down to Cinematheque and Bandito Express in the end though. These are the top contenders for Best Picture and the winner of that is likely to win this. I'll give it to Bandito Express right now because it has the buzz, but you never know.

Predicted: Bandito Express
Possible Upset: Cinematheque
Dark Horse: Project Sin or Gone Since November

Best Awards Campaign

Bandito Express
Cherry Blossom
Cinémathèque
To Dwell in Evil
The Jersey Widows
Knights of the Old Republic

I'm a nice guy, so I won't predict myself. I think all these nominees are great and its really hard to choose. I'll give it to Cinematheque because it was the most poetic of the bunch. Bandito and Cherry Blossoms are next.

Predicted: Cinematheque
Possible Upset: Bandito Express
Dark Horse: Cherry Blossom or The Jersey Widows

Best Online Awards Campaign

Cinémathèque
Complete Cycles of One Day
Knights of the Old Republic
Newport
They Shoot Horses, Don't They?

Again, no prediction of myself (though I think we could win here). I'll give it to Newport, since it had the most serious campaigning and since Michael's such a pro.

Predicted: Newport
Possible Upset: Cinematheque
Dark Horse: Complete Cycles of One Day

Best Title

Bandito Express
The Business of Pain
Gone Since November
To Dwell in Evil
One Life Two Live

Bandito Express just rolls off the tongue for me, so it gets my vote.

Predicted: Bandito Express
Possible Upset: Gone Since November
Dark Horse: To Dwell in Evil

Best Box-Office Potential

Bandito Express
The Death King
Knights of the Old Republic
Newport
Project Sin
Shattered City

No predicts for me. I'll give Newport the edge here, but any of the others are great too.

Prediction: Newport
Possible Upset: Project Sin
Dark Horse: Bandito Express

Most Likely Bait to Become a Cult-Film

Cinémathèque
Exposed
The Second Coming
Shamus
Tapestry
The Vulture

I'm giving Cinematheque this cause it would be a great foriegn film to be spread by word of mouth. Plus, film buffs everywhere would watch it.

Prediction: Cinematheque
Possible Upset: Exposed
Dark Horse: The Second Coming

Most Original Bait

Daniel the Informer
Exposed
Extradition
One Life Two Live
Project Sin
That Girl Was Sweaty!

A bit surprised by the list, but all good nominees. I'm giving it to Project Sin for its off-beat style and uniqueness.

Predicted: Project Sin
Possible Upset: Daniel the Informer
Dark Horse: Exposed or Extradition

Most Original Character

Chef Richard James (played by Robert De Niro) in Cherry Blossom
Sean Pendleton (played by Matt Damon) in The Second Coming
"Shamus" Dick Noir (played by Guy Pearce) in Shamus & Shamus II
Gregory Simmons (played by Paul Newman) in St. James' Academy
Linda Beale (played by Kate Winslet) in Sticks and Stones
Crash Benson (played by Mickey Rourke) in Stunt Man

Many great characters. I personally liked Stunt Man's lead, but there are more notable nods. I think Cherry Blossom will win here.

Predicted: Cherry Blossom
Possible Upset: The Second Coming
Dark Horse: Stuntman or Shamus

Best Cast

Bandito Express
The Blue Max
Cinémathèque
Extradition
The Jersey Widows
Isaac's Storm

No contest. Bandito Express is tailor-picked for a Quentin Tarantino film. Plus, this is Daniel's specialty.

Predicted: Bandito Express
Possible Upset: Cinematheque
Dark Horse: The Jersey Widows

Best Casting Choice

Daniel Auteuil as Henri Langlois in Cinémathèque
Shaun Toub & Shohreh Aghdashloo as Ketah & Tari Karimi in Down in Heaven
Jeanne Tripplehorn as Jackie Kennedy Onassis in Gone Since November
Julian McMahon as Darth Malak in Knights of the Old Republic
Paul Newman as Gregory Simmons in St. James' Academy

I'm usually no good at this topic. I have noticed though that many of my baits end up in this category for a certain reason (I was just as surprised as everyone at Lohan's win in July). I won't predict mine though. I'll give it to Gone Since November.

Predicted: Gone Since November
Possible Upset: Cinematheque
Dark Horse: Down in Heaven

Best Crew

The Blue Max
Cherry Blossom
To Dwell in Evil
Isaac's Storm
Knights of the Old Republic

You know the drill. I think Cherry Blossom had the most unique crew (compared to many in the contest), so it gets my vote. Plus, D.W. usually picks this group very well.

Predicted: Cherry Blossom
Possible Upset: To Dwell in Evil
Dark Horse: Issac's Storm

Best Tagline

"Blood is spilt and man will follow"
To Dwell in Evil

"When the director yells ‘cut’ that’s when the real drama begins"
Grosse Point

"Grief is a journey that must be taken, they took it together"
The Jersey Widows

"The darkness within the human mind has no outer limits"
Project Sin

"When the law shines a light of evil the good will cast their shadows"
Shadows in the Sun

This is hard for me to predict. I usually go for the most unique, but most people vote for the safest. I really liked Project Sin's though so I'll give it that.

Predicted: Project Sin
Possible Upset: To Dwell in Evil
Dark Horse: The Jersey Widows

Funniest Bait

The Death King
Exposed
Grosse Point
Newport
One Life Two Live
Three Uncles and a Bride

Yep, the same deal here. I give this to Exposed cause it was the funniest in its own unique way.

Predicted: Exposed
Possible Upset: Grosse Point
Dark Horse: Grosse Point

Shameless Oscar-Vehicles

Gone Since November
Isaac's Storm
The Jersey Widows
Mrs. King
The Partner
Shamus II

No Comment

Best Poster

Cinémathèque
Complete Cycles of One Day
Knights of the Old Republic
Project Sin
To Dwell in Evil

Maybe I just won't say anything by this point. I think any of these would be well deserved, but I'll give it to the king again.

Predicted: Complete Cylces of One Day
Possible Upset: Cinematheque
Dark Horse: Project Sin or To Dwell in Evil

Best Author of the Month
Special Achievement on Writing and Creativity

Daniel (Bandito Express)
Alex S. (Cinémathèque)
Chris Perkins (Gone Since November)
Maia (The Jersey Widows)
Tony (To Dwell in Evil & Exposed)

Can Daniel do the unthinkable? Win best author and best picture three times? Doubtful. I think either Alex or Tony will get this, but I still leave Daniel as an option. All of these authors deserve the nod though.

Predicted: Alex S.
Possible Upset: Daniel or Tony
Dark Horse: Maia

The Editor's TOP 5

Bandito Express
Cinémathèque
Cherry Blossom
The Red Menace
The Second Coming

No comment

THE BIG 8 AWARDS


Best Director

Bernardo Bertolucci, Cherry Blossom
James Mangold, Gone Since November
Mike Nichols, The Red Menace
Quentin Tarantino, Bandito Express
Joe Wright, Cinémathèque

Quentin Tarantino hands down. That bait just begs for him to read it and put it on screen.

Predicted: Quentin Tarantino
Possible Upset: Cinematheque or Cherry Blossom
Dark Horse: Gone Since November

Best Actor

Jack Black, Daniel the Informer
Robert De Niro, Cherry Blossom
Ben Foster, To Dwell in Evil
Paul Giamatti, Isaac's Storm
Guy Pearce, Shamus

I'm surprised Michael Madsen was snubbed here for Bandito Express. With him out of the picture, Robert De Niro is the frontrunner, especially considering he has the GG and the baitiest role of the group. Thus he gets the vote.

Predicted: Robert De Niro
Possible Upset: Ben Foster
Dark Horse: Paul Giamatti

Best Actress

Jacinda Barrett, Exposed
Angela Bassett, Mrs. King
Helena Bonham Carter, The Red Menace
Holly Hunter, The Jersey Widows
Jeanne Tripplehorn, Gone Since November

Jeanne Tripplehorn is the most likely after her GG win. Jacinda Barrett and Holly Hunter are next in line. The other two just simply don't have the buzz to pull off a win.

Predicted: Jeanne Tripplehorn
Possible Upset: Holly Hunter
Dark Horse: Jacinda Barrett

Best Supporting Actor

Daniel Auteuil, Cinémathèque
Samuel L. Jackson, Bandito Express
Alfred Molina, Gone Since November
Paul Newman, St. James' Academy
Mark Ruffalo, Extradition

It's between Auteuil and Jackson. I think Auteuil gets the vote since one, he hasn't won before. And two, his role is baitier.

Predicted: Daniel Auteuil
Possible Upset: Samuel L. Jackson
Dark Horse: Alfred Molina

Best Supporting Actress

Eva Green, Cinémathèque
Mary Elizabeth Mastrantonio, The Jersey Widows
Gretchen Mol, The Jersey Widows
Uma Thurman, Bandito Express
Michelle Yeoh, Extradition

Very tough race (which is surprising given the weakness of this category). I think Gretchen Mol will nab it, with Eva Green and Uma Thurman a close second.

Predicted: Gretchen Mol
Possible Upset: Uma Thurman
Dark Horse: Eva Green

Best Original Screenplay

Bandito Express
Cinémathèque
The Death King
The Jersey Widows
Project Sin

Bandito Express hands down. Whether it wins director or not, it will absolutely win here. Again, this is a sure fire Quentin Tarantino story.

Predicted: Bandito Express
Possible Upset: Cinematheque
Dark Horse: The Jersery Widows

Best Adapted Screenplay

The Blue Max
Gone Since November
Isaac's Storm
Knights of the Old Republic
Newport

I really would like to predict myself here, but not only do I not like to do that but it's also a video game and Star Wars based movie. I think Gone Since November is the frontrunner.

Predicted: Gone Since November
Possible: Issac's Storm
Dark Horse: Newport

Best Picture

Bandito Express
Cinémathèque
Gone Since November
The Jersey Widows
To Dwell in Evil

Interesting and tough list. While I respect Tony greatly as an author, I don't think To Dwell in Evil was his best bait. The Jersey Widows has a lot backing it up (real event, written by Maia, very baity), but it's lack of buzz could hurt it. Gone Since November is in the same position, but is aided a little by the fact it's written by a first time BP nominee. In the end, it boils down to Bandito Express and Cinematheque. Both have many strengths backing them up. Bandito Express has a believable cast and crew, popularity and Daniel backing it up. The factor hindering it is whether people are willing to reward him best picture three times. Cinematheque has everything an artsy movie needs, including a great cast and crew, a very poetic writing style, a great poster and a baity subject. Plus, Alex has yet to win best picture. While Bandito has a very likely chance of pulling off a win, I'm giving it to Cinematheque just because of personal opinion and statistics. I think this will be one of the closest calls of the race. If Cinematheque wins, we'll have a new member to the voting team. If Bandito Express wins, Daniel will achieve the impossible by being the first author to win twice and three times. The tensions so thick not even a knife can cut it.

Predicted: Cinematheque
Possible Upset: Bandito Express
Dark Horse: Gone Since November or The Jersey Widows

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