Zgamer's Predictions on the Official Nominations

Well, the nods are here and now it's time for the predicting of the awards. Now, I will keep it fair by not predicting my bait. By the way, I want to thank everyone who helped me earn a personal best by earning three Big 8 nods for a video game. That's very encouraging. Anyways, let's begin:

CREATIVITY AWARDS

Best Plot / Synopsis

Behind Closed Doors
The Dead President
Field of Desire
For Pay
The Gold of Cajamarca
Tabula Rasa

The big competitors here are obviously the ones up for best picture. Problem is, only one of them isn't up for it. I have a feeling The Dead President will be rewarded either here or for the awards campaign so I think it will be safe to say it has a chance here. However, Behind Closed Doors and For Pay have a lot of supporters, so they may have a chance too. I think I'll give it to The Dead President since I think it has the best chances for Best Picture.

Predicted: The Dead President
Runner-Up: For Pay
Dark Horse: Behind Closed Doors

Best Awards Campaign

Behind Closed Doors
Criminal Origins
The Dead President
For Pay
Thoroughly Modern Millie
Zeppelin 2020

I enjoyed a lot of these baits, but I think Behind Closed Doors will get this one since it was by far the best written and precise of the ones in running. However, look for For Pay and The Dead President to be close behind it.

Predicted: Behind Closed Doors
Runner-Up: The Dead President
Dark Horse: For Pay

Best Online Awards Campaign

Catastrophe-astrophe
The Cloud
For Pay
The Ice Princess
Stanford's Prisons

Sergio has the edge here thanks to his brilliant poster design, but Alfredo has a bit of support thanks to his posters too. If not them, it will most likely Catastrophe-astrophe.

Predicted: For Pay
Runner-Up: The Cloud
Dark Horse: Catastrophe-astrophe

Best Title

Behind Closed Doors
Field of Desire
If Tomorrow Never Comes...
Needle in the Hay
The Road We Traveled

Always a hard category to predict. I think it should go to either Field of Desrie or The Road We Traveled. Both kind of roll off the tongue in their own way.

Predicted: Field of Desire
Runner-Up: The Road We Traveled
Dark Horse: Behind Closed Doors

Best Box-Office Potential

The Curious Savage
The Dark Tower I: The Gunslinger
The Dark Tower II: The Drawing of the Three
The Haunting
To Serve Man
Zeppelin 2020

All of these are box-office gold, but I think Dark Tower I gets my vote here because it has all the right ingredients. Zeppelin 2020 also has a chance.

Predicted: The Dark Tower I: The Gunslinger
Runner-Up: Zeppelin 2020
Dark Horse: The Dark Tower II: The Drawing of the Three

Best Cult Film

Catastrophe-astrophe
Criminal Origins
Harvey Black.
LD
Switching Time
The Witch of Portobello

I think it will be between Catastrophe-astrophe or Harvey Black.. Both seem to have the stuff needed to be considered cult hits. I guess I'll go with Harvey Black. out of personal preference.

Predicted: Harvey Black.
Runner-Up: Catastrophe-astrophe
Dark Horse: Switching Time

Most Original Bait

The Dead President
For Pay
Harvey Black.
A Modern Tale
Tabula Rasa
The Road We Traveled

Toughie. I think Harvey Black. has the most original idea for the most part, but the other ones are also unique in their own way. Harvey Black. gets my vote, but keep an eye on Tabula Rasa and The Dead President (It was a pretty unique bait on its own terms).

Predicted: Harvey Black.
Runner-Up: Tabula Rasa
Dark Horse: The Dead President or For Pay

Most Original Character

Danny Roberts, played by Macaulay Culkin, in For Pay
Harvey Black, played by Christopher Walken, in Harvey Black.
Kevin, played by Michael Cera, in LD
Dolores Sinclair, played by Meryl Streep, in A Modern Tale
The Priest, played by Jude Law, in Tabula Rasa
James Cowry, played by Edward Burns, in Welcome Back
Leyton Hume, played by Joseph Gordon-Levitt, in Zeppelin 2020

I think the most developed of the characters were For Pay, Harvey Black. and Tabula Rasa. I have a feeling For Pay will get this win because of its character and its unique casting, but the other two are worth considering.

Predicted: For Pay
Runner-Up: Harvey Black
Dark Horse: Tabula Rasa

Best Cast

The Dead President
Field of Desire
The Gold of Cajamarca
Things We Lost in the Time of War
Stanford's Prisons

The Dead President by far had the best cast of the group. It will most likely win this.

Predicted: The Dead President
Runner-Up: Field of Desire
Dark Horse: Stanford's Prisons

Best Casting Choice

Dennis Haysbert as Detective Alan Handrick in Criminal Origins
Daniel Day Lewis as Francisco Pizarro in The Gold of Cajamarca
Christopher Walken as Harvey Black in Harvey Black.
Lisa Kudrow as Erica Falck in The Ice Princess
Susan Sarandon as Ann Marie Fowler in Things We Lost in the Time of War

I think Harvey Black. really has a chance here more than anywhere else. Walken's voice and style of acting seem very fitting for his character and I can totally see him playing this role. It gets my vote, but look for Cajamarca as a runner-up.

Predicted: Harvey Black.
Runner-Up: The Gold of Cajamarca
Dark Horse: The Ice Princess

Best Crew

The Cloud
Criminal Origins
Stanford's Prisons
To Serve Man
Zeppelin 2020

Very tough. I really enjoyed the crew for all these baits, but I think The Cloud will win here cause of a great director choice. However, Zeppelin 2020 has a chance due to the fact it's a D.W. bait.

Predicted: The Cloud
Runner-Up: Zeppelin 2020
Dark Horse: Stanford's Prisons

Best Tagline

"It's a dangerous business going out your front door"
Behind Closed Doors

"There are always rays of light over the darkest clouds"
The Cloud

"Look to the Horizon... and Beg For Sunset"
The Dark Tower I: The Gunslinger

"Leadership is dying. Justice is hiding. Corruption is growing"
The Dead President

"The most beautiful artists bare the most tormented souls"
Needle in the Hay

"Somewhere along the way to getting the ultimate high, they grew up"
The Road We Traveled

Ok, it's usually the safest choice that wins this award, so my vote goes to The Dead President. However, I really liked a lot of these taglines so any of them would be fine choices for winners.

Predicted: The Dead President
Runner-Up: Behind Closed Doors
Dark Horse: The Road We Traveled or The Cloud or Dark Tower

Funniest Bait

The Curious Savage
Mr. & Mrs. Woods
A Modern Tale
The Road We Traveled
Thoroughly Modern Millie

No question that the two most likely ones are Thoroughly Modern Millie and A Modern Tale. I'm going with the former cause I liked it more and Michael usually does well here.

Predicted: Thoroughly Modern Millie
Runner-Up: A Modern Tale
Dark Horse: The Road We Traveled

Shameless Oscar-Vehicles

Field of Desire
The Good Guy
If Tomorrow Never Comes...
Needle in the Hay
Things We Lost in the Time of War
The Witch of Portobello

No Comment

Best Poster

The Cloud
The Gold of Cajamarca
A Modern Tale
Tabula Rasa
Thoroughly Modern Millie

A toughie, but I'm going to go with the king and pick The Cloud. Its poster is hypnotic and very well done. However, Tabula Rasa is also up for consideration just for having a very distinct style.

Predicted: The Cloud
Runner-Up: Tabula Rasa
Dark Horse: A Modern Tale or Thoroughly Modern Millie

Best Author of the Month
Special Achievement on Writing and Creativity

Alfredo (For Pay)
Bryce M. (Field of Desire & Welcome Back)
Chris M. (Behind Closed Doors & Switching Time)
Conrado Falco (The Gold of Cajamarca)
Pat (The Dead President & The Road We Traveled)
Zgamer (Criminal Origins)

For quality, I think Pat is the frontrunner. For unqiueness, Alfredo is also for consideration. A very tight race this month.

Predicted: Pat
Runner-Up: Alfredo
Dark Horse: Chris M.

The Editor's TOP 5

The Dead President
Field of Desire
For Pay
The Gold of Cajamarca
Welcome Back

No comment.

THE BIG 8 AWARDS

Best Director

David Fincher, Criminal Origins
Marc Forster, The Cloud
Michael Heneke, Behind Closed Doors
Mike Nichols, The Dead President
Gus Van Sant, For Pay

This was a good month for directors. A lot of unique and baity choices. I think Gus Van Sant has uniqueness and lack of exposure to his advantage, but Nichols is a part of the biggest bait of the month so he may have a chance. Really, I wouldn't mind if any of these choices won.

Predicted: Gus Van Sant
Runner-Up: Mike Nichols
Dark Horse: Any of them

Best Actor

Macaulay Culkin, For Pay
Jeff Bridges, The Dead President
John Goodman, Behind Closed Doors
Jude Law, Tabula Rasa
Christopher Walken, Harvey Black.

Again, I thoroughly enjoyed all the nominees here. Obviously though, it will be between Culkin, Bridges and Goodman. Goodman has popular support, but I think people fail to realize that even though he's good, it's essentially the same role he played in Barton Fink. Bridges is in the frontrunner for best picture, but he doesn't have as much buzz. So I think it will go to Culkin for uniqueness of the casting and the role he's in. But seriously, I liked them all so much for so many reasons.

Predicted: Macaulay Culkin
Runner-Up: Jeff Bridges
Dark Horse: Any of them

Best Actress

Sutton Foster, Thoroughly Modern Millie
Keira Knightley, The Witch of Portobello
Lisa Kudrow, The Ice Princess
Susan Sarandon, Things We Lost in the Time of War
Meryl Streep, A Modern Tale
Kerry Washington, Field of Desire

Another boring race for best actress. Watch Washington sweep this up in a heart beat.

Predicted: Kerry Washington
Runner-Up; Sutton Foster
Dark Horse: Meryl Streep

Best Supporting Actor

Gabriel Byrne, Catastrophe-astrophe
Richard Chamberlain, For Pay
Dennis Haysbert, Criminal Origins
Ethan Hawke, Stanford's Prisons
David Strathairn, The Cloud

Another very competitive category in which I like most of the nominees. However, out of the nominees (and excluding mine even though he's a predicted frontrunner), Chamberlain has the best chances.

Predicted: Richard Chamberlain
Runner-Up: Ethan Hawke
Dark Horse: David Strathairn

Best Supporting Actress

Maggie Gyllenhaal, Behind Closed Doors
Megan Mullaly, Thoroughly Modern Millie
Elizabeth Reaser, Field of Desire
Eva Marie Saint, Kathy's Desire
Patricia Wettig, The Dead President

A so-so race this month. I think Maggie Gyllenhaal will win this just because of the lack of serious competition.

Predicted: Maggie Gyllenhaal
Runner-Up: Megan Mullay
Dark Horse: Patricia Wettig

Best Original Screenplay

The Dead President
Field of Desire
Harvey Black.
Tabula Rasa
Welcome Back

A three way race between The Dead President, Harvey Black. and Tabula Rasa. However, since Tabula Rasa didn't get many predictions on my list, I think I will give it the advantage here cause it's likely to win something. Look for Dead President to be its main competition.

Predicted: Tabula Rasa
Runner-Up: The Dead President
Dark Horse: Harvey Black.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Criminal Origins
The Dark Tower I: The Gunslinger
The Gold of Cajamarca
Switching Time
Thoroughly Modern Millie
The Witch of Portobello

Hmm... I'll give Millie the edge since it's a friendlier topic than the others. However, Cajamarca has been getting a surprise amount of attention so it could win.

Predicted: Thoroughly Modern Millie
Runner-Up: The Gold of Cajamarca
Dark Horse: The Dark Tower

Best Picture

Behind Closed Doors
The Dead President
Field of Desire
For Pay
The Gold of Cajamarca

Ok, let's look at the nominees. While Gold of Cajamarca has some strong support from people like Maia, I just don't think it's likely to win (I didn't hate the bait, but it wasn' my favorite). Field of Desire will win best actress, but it wasn't the best written bait so it may have some trouble here. Behind Closed Doors has the fan support and the quality writing, but popular baits don't always get recognized here. So it's mostly between For Pay and The Dead President. I'm very confident Pat will become the next double BOTM winner for this bait, so he gets my vote. It was the best written of those two and is a much friendlier topic for the Oscars.

Predicted: The Dead President
Runner-Up: For Pay
Dark Horse: Behind Closed Doors

Good luck to everyone and I am very excited to see the results.